Friday, April 25, 2008

Take me out to the Simpson's Paradox

What a great example from wikipedia.

In case the "paradox" isn't clear--for three years David Justice had a higher batting average than Derek Jeter. If the Yankess GM was going to base their next contract on their hitting over these three years, he might say to himself: Justice hit better three years in a row. He gets more money. Jeter might even concede the reasonableness of the decision.

It would be the wrong decision. Even though Jeter lost the competition every year--his cumulative average is higher. He deserves the bigger contract.

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